The Housing and Building Association of Colorado Springs, the Greater Colorado Springs Economic Development Corporation, and other members of the growth industry repeat over and over that “birth rate is responsible for more than half of area population growth.” Newspaper and television reporters repeat it, and even elected city leaders repeat it. It’s important to dispel this myth for three reasons:

1. Local residents need to understand they need not feel guilty of hypocrisy for questioning the wisdom of continued growth if they have had children.

2. Having an accurate picture of the true source of population growth may affect our opinions of the “inevitability” of growth.

3. If we ever decide to limit growth, we need to know the true source of that growth so we can work to impact that.

Subtracting deaths from births and out-migration from in-migration doesn’t make any sense. Births/deaths and in/out-migration are not closed loops. Many out-migrants were never in-migrants, but rather were born here. Many who died here were not born here. We don’t know exactly what percentage of those born in El Paso County remain at age 18 or 22 to clog our roads or compete for jobs, but in today’s transient society, where the average family moves at least every 5 years, especially in a military town (where a large portion of the child-bearing age population are even more mobile), it’s likely a very small percentage remain to join the labor force. So we shouldn’t assume we have to “create” jobs for all of them.

Truth is, is doesn’t matter that much whether those born here stay or not. In 2001, 52,413 people moved into our county. Did 45,537 of them turn around and move back out that same year? No. So rather than focus on “net” figures, it makes sense just to look at what forces are working to increase our population:

Births Account for Less Than 15% of Population Increase

Here is an analogy illustrating the source of population growth in our county and how misleading it is to say half our growth is due to natural population increase:

Let’s say the population of El Paso County is water in a big pool. Two spigots feed water into the pool. One is “births,” which trickles in at about 8,000 per year. The other spigot is “in-migration,” gushing in at 40,000 to 50,000 per year. The pool loses some “people” through two drains: a small drain called “deaths,” and a much larger drain called “out-migration.” It’s all one pool of water; neither spigot is confined to one drain or the other. Now, one day the alarms ring. The pool is about to overflow. Drastic action is required. Which spigot would you turn off to have the greatest impact? Do you race to turn off the tiny trickle from the births spigot, or do you run to the in-migration spigot?